Marami na ang nagsulat ng op-ed tungkol sa resulta ng halalan sa Romblon. In summary, nilampaso ni Mayor Trina si Gov. Otik pero panalo pa rin ang team Botika sa pangkalahatan.
Bagong analisis ba itong sa akin ngayon? Hindi naman, pero kakaiba ito sa mga nauna. Ibang numero naman ang aking ipapakita nang walang kandidatong patutungkulan o pangangalanan. Hindi rin ito kaso ng sour-graping ng isang talunan.
Mas patungkol ito sa mga botong nasayang dahil sa pagkakamali, o kaya ay napakinabangan, sadya man o hindi, resulta ng mas malaking problemang ating kinakaharap sa ilalim ng kasalukuyang electoral system.
Hindi gaanong pamilyar ang karamihan sa mga numerong ito dahil hindi ito boto para kanino o botong talo o panalo. Ang tawag sa mga numerong ito ay over-votes at under-votes na makikita na natin ngayon sa website ng Comelec kasama ng nakapost na resulta ng halalan. Napansin lamang ang bagay na ito nang mayroong magtanong tungkol sa 17 million over-votes sa mga senador at 242 million na under-votes.
Halong taglish ang lokal na presentasyon kong ito na ginawa habang pahayahayahay lang muna sa bahay.
So, here we go.
For Governor: 152 over-votes, 400 under-votes
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Here, 152 votes were nullified as they voted more than one governor while 400 voted no one for the position.
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For Vice Governor: 44 over-votes 4,395 under-votes
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Few over-voted but 4,395 did not vote for any of the 2 candidates.
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For SP (2nd District): 1,175 over-votes 45,565 under-votes
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Using the Comelec formula of dividing the total number of over-votes by the total the number of position, 235 votes for each SP were invalidated due to over-voting (1,175/5). On the other hand, a candidate may have possibly benefited or denied 9,113 votes (45,565/5) due to under-voting.
This may simply be a case of a voter exercising his/her right to vote or not to vote for a particular candidate since under-voting is not prohibited. Or maybe not, for there are effective interventions that may lead to this effect such as vote-buying and bloc-voting.
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For Mayor Odiongan: 62 over-votes 592 under-votes
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62 voted for more than 1 Mayor, 592 did not vote for any of the 2 candidates.
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For Vice Mayor Odiongan: 83 over-votes 1,626 under-votes
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83 voted for more than 1 Vice Mayor while 1,626 abstained.
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For SB Odiongan: 5,144 over-votes 54,563 undervotes
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This is 643 invalidated votes for each SB (5,144/8) under the presumption that these voters shaded at least 8 candidates.
But the high number of under-votes in Odiongan is more telling. The 54,563 under-votes, the highest in the province, from those who voted less than 8 for SB, meant denying a candidate of at least 6,820 votes (54,563/8). Again, abstention is neither a crime nor a sin. It is freedom of choice. Well, this is not much an issue for the runaway winners for they are presumed beneficiaries of the many forms of under-voting, legal or otherwise.
Yet for those who fantasize about party machinery and esprit de corps, seeing party-mates going their own separate ways in the end-game to secure each’s individual position, underscores the dark side of realpolitik that affects contending parties and individuals alike. The unwritten rule: Do this and that in order to survive. That’s realpolitik. It happened at the national level when senatorial candidates abandoned the ruling alliance to seek the favor of another dynasty. In short, it’s happening everywhere.
This, to me, is a major defect of non-parliamentary systems where people vote for the candidate and not for the party that he/she represents.
As a norm, popularity and personal sympathy weigh more than party platforms at all levels. For instance, people voted willingly for senator/s with no cohesive platform or without even getting any favor from them, but at the local level, the demand for personal affection, presence, and material gifts for any occasion is high. It’s very personal. Service is never public but personal.
Wealth of course can buy a lethal combination of airwaves and ground connections to ensure delivery of votes. The more you give, the more you receive. Only a handful of politicians defy this logic.
So, it looks like we’re not getting anywhere from here absent major political reforms. Miru VCMs have already replaced Smartmatic and voting time was made longer from 5am to 7pm. We are more online and connected today than before, yet as more things change, the more they seem to stay the same.
Kaya nararapat lang na maging major agenda ito ng mga nasa posisyon ngayon. Itulak ang anti-dynasty law, boldyakin man ang panukalang ito ng mga dinastiya. Repormahin ang partylist at buong political party system. Ipagbawal ang turncoatism. I-subsidize ang electoral exercise para di nakakalamang ang mga lamang na sa buhay. Ilan lamang ito. Marami pang problema na kailangang aksyunan.
Sa pulitika, mas magandang may pinag-aawayang agenda/programa kaysa ang mamayaning kalakaran at kultura ay balimbingan, tapikan at takipan.
Unfortunately, ilan pa lamang ang game-changer na maituturing dito sa ating bansa, and they can either be an effective enablers of system change or it is the system that will change them in the long run.
Kapos naman kung ang framework ay lumublob sa basura para linisin ang basura. Hindi ito mali pero bihira ang nagtatagumpay sa ganitong paraan, lalo na kung nakahiwalay sa kanila ang mamamayan.
“No contradictions = No change,” ika nga. Hindi naman robots at AI ang solusyon sa ganitong problema.
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